Head’s Blog: The Law of Unintended Consequences
Whilst I have been a Head for 17 years, at heart I’m still a geography teacher. Geographers understand systems, and how changes in one part of a system can have significant and sometimes unexpected changes elsewhere. We recognise connectivity, and we see both the small detail and the big picture. Geographers understand how removing vegetation from a slope, can change moisture levels in the soil, turning a stable system into an unstable one and increasing the risks of a sudden landslide. We are trained to follow through the consequences of an action and to look out for intended and unintended effects both those that happen close to in time and space, and those that happen further away and much later.
Independent schools educate around 6% of the children in British schools. It may be thought that a change in this small part of the UK educational system will have limited impacts. This is certainly how the government portrayed its decision to impose VAT on fees and remove business rates relief from independent schools. Their modelling suggested that a relatively modest number of pupils would leave the independent sector, whilst VAT on school fees would generate about £1.7 billion annually to fund extra teachers in state schools. The government is sticking to these predictions.
But this is where my inner geographer kicks in and I move into systems analysis mode.
Emerging evidence from the independent sector is showing both a reduction in pupil numbers in independent schools now, and a reduction in those applying to independent schools for September 2026 entry. The numbers involved are not small – the September 2025 ISC survey recorded a fall of 16,349 pupils (compared to September 2024), and given widespread sector concerns about lower applications for 2026 entry, the fall in pupil numbers for September 2026 will be larger still. In short, tens of thousands of children will leave the independent sector, and the scale and suddenness of this shift will affect pupils and parents across all school types. This is a recipe for unintended consequences.
Declining pupil rolls will force some independent schools to close (over 50 have this year), others to merge, and more to cut expenditure and make redundancies. This will be challenging for the schools concerned and there will be casualties in the form of children who lose their school and their peer group, and staff who lose their jobs.
In some parts of the country where the supply of school places (both state and independent) closely matches the demand (both state and independent) for school places, the closure of independent schools will create imbalances between supply and demand. Whilst the national average for pupil attendance at independent schools is 6%, in some areas it is much higher – for example in Surrey, roughly 1 in 5 children attend an independent school, in Edinburgh it is 1 in 4 and in some parts of London it is nearly 1 in 2. Independent school failures in these areas could displace more children into state schools than there are state school places available, putting local authorities who have a legal duty to educate children, in very challenging positions.
Given the timeline for school applications, problems may only become apparent in Spring 2026 giving local authorities just a few months to address them before the start of the new school year. But teacher recruitment, curriculum planning, building construction and budget timelines mean it will be very hard for the state sector to create additional places in this short window. If extra local state school places cannot be found at short notice, more children will not get into their first-choice state school, and more children will be allocated to schools further away from their homes. This will be unpopular, especially if the distant school is perceived to be less good than the closer school. More appeals against state school admissions decisions are likely. Wealthier parents may buy houses in the catchment of preferred state schools to secure their children places. House price inflation around top performing state schools could make these schools inaccessible to families who cannot afford to live in the catchment. A measure designed to target independent schools, could end up having a negative impact on families and children in state schools.
About a quarter of pupils in independent schools have either an Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP) or Special Educational Needs (SEN) support. If a significant number of SEND/EHCP children were to transfer to the state sector, then SEND provision in state schools, which is already facing significant pressures, could be overwhelmed. It is interesting that the government has chosen to impose VAT on private education, but not on private healthcare. This decision may in part reflect NHS realities, where a movement of private patients to NHS hospitals could overwhelm a system that is already struggling. But a similar scenario could unfold in state schools, especially for SEND pupils in areas where large numbers of pupils switch from independent to state schools.
When pupils switch from independent to state schools, a cost passes from the private purse to the public purse. In the government’s modelling it was estimated that the cost of pupils moving from independent to state schools would amount to an extra £100-£300 million per year, reducing the net annual tax gain from £1.7 billion to somewhere between £1.3 and £1.6 billion. But if, as seems likely, more pupils transfer from independent to state schools, the costs could rise and the net tax receipts fall. A policy designed to increase tax receipts and state school funding, could depending on the number of independent to state transfers, have the reverse effect.
Geographers know the importance of collecting data in the field that will provide early warning of a system failure. Parliamentary responses suggest the government is not collecting live data on the independent to state school shift and is instead relying on its initial modelling. This seems unwise as predictions and reality can differ.
I hope for all the pupils, staff, and parents in the education system (both state and independent) that my concerns about unintended consequences and systems failure come to nothing. I am fortunate to lead a financially and educationally strong school, and The Perse will successfully navigate the challenges that lie ahead. I hope other independent schools will do the same, and that the number of closures can be kept to a minimum. I hope that state schools receive the extra teachers they need and have been promised. But amongst all this hope it would be prudent to monitor the changing situation closely as we move from a stable school admissions system to one that could become unstable and prone to sudden change. It would be wise for all parties involved (parents, independent and state schools, local authorities, and national government) to do some scenario planning so that children can be educated in schools they want to attend, and which meet their needs.
Ed Elliott